The wind turbine industry is growing in an inertial way, and the market is obviously declining

The reporter learned from the 6th General Meeting of the fan branch of China General Machinery Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the fan branch) held in Dalian from July 5 to 8, the wind turbine industry was affected by the national macro-control and other factors, and the market order in the first five months of this year showed a downward trend. However, due to the wind turbine industry's responsibility for petroleum, chemical, coal, metallurgy, electric power, mining, textile, and The supporting tasks of state key projects such as environmental protection and scientific research have maintained the momentum of inertial growth.

According to the statistics of fan branch, from January to May this year, the total industrial output value (current price) of the whole industry was 9773.866 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.45%; the industrial sales output value was 8517458000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%; the export delivery value was 239.09 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%; the industrial added value was 3064.458 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20%; and the main business income was 8342.605 million yuan, year-on-year 69%; the total profit was 536.137 million yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period of last year; the accumulated order quantity was 21816.838 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%.

From the above statistical data analysis, it is not difficult to see that the economic operation of the wind turbine industry in the first five months of this year presents the following characteristics:

First, the whole industry continues to maintain the inertial growth. Affected by the rapid development of wind turbine industry in previous years, in the first five months of this year, the total output value of key backbone enterprises in the wind turbine industry still increased by 11% compared with the same period last year. This is related to the fact that wind turbine is a kind of general product with large quantity and wide range. At the same time, China's economy has maintained steady and rapid development in recent years, which makes the wind turbine industry show the trend of inertial growth. In addition, in the first five months of this year, the contracts of many wind turbine manufacturers were carried forward from the previous year to the first half of this year, which is also the reason for maintaining the growth of the whole industry from January to May.

Nevertheless, the overall development of the industry is still uneven. For example, Shenyang drum, Shaanxi drum and changgu all maintained moderate growth from January to may, with a high growth rate of 68.8%. Some enterprises still show obvious signs of decline compared with the same period last year.

Second, the inventory occupation of finished products increased and the production and sales rate decreased. From January to may, the key enterprises in the fan industry produced 3560.628 million yuan of finished products, an increase of 59.4% year-on-year, and the production and sales rate of the whole industry was only 87.1%. The main reasons are: 1. In order to reduce the pressure of centralized delivery in the second half of the year, the enterprises put into production ahead of schedule in order to balance the production, but the finished products were not delivered to the users; 2. Some users did not pay the payment according to the contract, resulting in the delivery of the finished products; 3. Affected by the national macroeconomic policies, individual projects were removed, resulting in product returns. With the approaching of the second half of the year, the problem of large inventory of finished products produced by enterprises will be obviously alleviated.

Third, the market has an obvious downward trend. From the perspective of the ordering situation of key enterprises, the first five months of this year decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, reflecting the gradual impact of the national macro policy adjustment on the wind turbine industry. Among them, the impact on medium-sized enterprises is more obvious. The order quantity of most medium-sized enterprises in the industry has decreased significantly, and the order quantity of some enterprises is only 20% of the same period last year. The order quantity of large-scale wind turbine manufacturers in Shenggu, Shaangu, Shanggu, ChongTong and other industries was basically the same as that of the same period last year. The order quantity of some enterprises did not decrease, but also increased slightly.

Fourth, the competitiveness of products needs to be further improved. In the first five months of this year, the output value of new products of key enterprises in the wind turbine industry decreased by 12.17%, showing a significant contrast with the output value growth of 11.45%. This reflects that the wind turbine industry product technology innovation ability needs to be enhanced.

In addition, from the statistical data, although the export delivery value of key enterprises in the industry has increased by 20% compared with the same period last year, the high growth of this year is mainly due to the low base of some enterprises in the same period last year. On the whole, the export level of the whole industry is low, and the export volume only accounts for 2.4% of the total output value. It is worth noting that due to the restructuring of some key enterprises, the operating conditions of enterprises have been seriously affected, and various indicators of enterprises have declined significantly. In the second half of the year, effective measures must be taken to reverse this situation.

From the historical analysis, the main export products of fans are medium and small fans and fan accessories. Centrifugal blowers, roots fans and centrifugal compressors are mainly exported to some less developed countries, such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea, Iran, Sudan, Albania and Mongolia. Therefore, it can be considered that the export products of fans should be mainly concentrated in the field of medium and small fans in the next few years.

Fifth, the supply of low-end products exceeds the demand, and the demand for special purpose fans has increased. Fan products are mainly divided into two categories, one is a large number of small and medium-sized fans; the other is technology intensive turbine compressor, centrifugal fan, Roots fan. For the large and wide range of medium and small fan products, the user demand is large, and the manufacturers are also many. Generally speaking, although the demand for such fans will increase by a large margin in the next few years, the supply will still exceed the demand; as a major complete set of equipment, such as turbine compressors, centrifugal fans, roots fans and other products, with the large-scale equipment, the product capacity requirements are also increasing; for fans for special purposes, such as anti-corrosion fans, high-temperature fans, corrosion resistance Corrosion fan and explosion-proof fan, such as stainless steel fan, FRP fan, plastic fan, metal lined rubber fan, cast aluminum impeller fan, forged aluminum blade axial fan and titanium fan will increase in demand.

Generally speaking, the wind turbine industry has a good development situation in the first five months of this year. The whole industry has maintained moderate growth and its economic benefits have also been improved simultaneously. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the wind turbine industry will continue to maintain the momentum of development, the main economic indicators will have a certain improvement, and the wind turbine industry will still be a year of benign growth in 2006.