Four major problems in chemical industry in the second half of the year

In the first half of this year, although China's petroleum and chemical industry maintained a good momentum of development in terms of production and marketing, price, import and export, and economic benefits continued to improve, there were still many problems in the economic operation, mainly in the following four aspects:

——Tight oil supply

In the first half of the year, China's oil market showed a tight supply situation, especially in the southern region. In the first five months, China's total imports of crude oil reached 61.548 million tons, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of last year. Although the situation is better than that of the first quarter, this situation should be paid close attention to in view of the strategic position of crude oil in the whole national economy. Since the beginning of this year, the state has raised the price of refined oil twice in March and may respectively. Although the adjustment helps to improve energy efficiency and restrain some consumption demand, the overall tight supply situation has not changed greatly.

With the promotion of the construction of new socialist countryside, China's rural production will get greater development, agriculture will also become the new main energy consumption groups, the potential rural consumption demand will gradually become a new growth point of oil consumption. Therefore, we should consider all kinds of influencing factors comprehensively, formulate energy policies in line with China's economic development, strive to increase oil inventory, reasonably arrange transportation, strengthen market management, adjust export volume, establish corresponding market early warning mechanism, and strengthen national macro-control to solve the problem of oil supply in the second half of the year.

——In the five months before the decline of pesticide export, the pesticide industry showed a good situation that the off-season was not weak and the production and sales were booming, but the export situation was not optimistic. From January to may, the total export of pesticides was 185000 tons, an increase of 8.1% over the same period of last year, but the export volume decreased by 21.8% year on year. The reasons are as follows: firstly, the production, sale and use of five high toxic pesticides such as methamidophos will be banned by the end of 2006, and these products account for a high proportion in the total export of pesticides; secondly, the trade barriers in Europe, the United States and Australia are serious; thirdly, the brand of export products is poor; fourthly, disordered competition; and fifthly, it is affected by the exchange rate. In terms of varieties, the export volume of pesticides and fungicides were 12000 tons and 4000 tons, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% and 23.9%; the export of herbicides was 20000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 56.1%.

——The price of natural rubber is too high. Natural rubber is the main raw material and strategic material of China's rubber industry. However, the natural rubber resources in China are scarce, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, and the price remains high. According to the plan of the Ministry of agriculture, the total output of natural rubber in China will be 750000 tons by 2010. At that time, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic natural rubber will be less than 1 / 3, which will cause China's natural rubber highly dependent on import and can only passively accept the import price. Since 2006, the price of natural rubber in China has continued to rise. In June, the price of natural rubber has risen to the highest point of this year. The natural rubber SCR5 and scr10 reached 25250 yuan / ton and 24250 yuan / ton respectively. Such "skyrocketing prices" are even worse for the rubber products industry, which is characterized by oversupply of production capacity, fierce market competition and frequent anti-dumping in export trade. Downstream users have called for cooling the "high fever" rubber price, so the market once again focuses on the import tariff of natural rubber. Enterprises have called on the state to reduce the natural rubber import tariff, or restore the provisional tax rate of 12% before China's accession to the WTO.

——Some products have excess capacity. Due to the improvement of the efficiency of the whole chemical industry in recent years, the whole industry has set off a climax of capacity expansion, especially in the areas rich in energy and resources in the central and western regions. These regions want to speed up economic development during the "Tenth Five Year plan" period, making use of local coal, mineral resources and other resources to plan and build large coal chemical bases The same thing. These projects will be put into operation successively in the past two years, resulting in overcapacity of many products, such as "two alkali", calcium carbide, pesticide, urea, coating, dyes, etc. At present, this trend is still spreading. There is a lack of unified coordination among different regions, and blind construction regardless of the development capacity of the market and environment. Even in the same region, there is a phenomenon of disordered planning. At the same time, many private investors lack rational low-level repeated construction, which also aggravates the problem of overcapacity. Therefore, it is urgent to promote structural adjustment, strengthen pollution control and develop circular economy.

In order to promote the industrial structure adjustment of the whole petroleum and chemical industry, the state should increase the policy support for the development of high value-added products such as new chemical materials and fine chemicals, as well as the development of new technologies and new processes, and resolutely eliminate the enterprises with small scale, backward process technology and substandard environmental protection.

In addition, there are still some problems that should be paid attention to, such as serious losses in the oil refining industry, shortage of phosphate rock supply in phosphate fertilizer enterprises in the province of phosphorus deficiency, excess capacity of sulfuric acid and low price.

In the second half of this year, China's output of petroleum and chemical products will continue to grow rapidly, but in view of the fact that downstream demand cannot be increased simultaneously, the sales situation of products is expected to decline compared with that in 2005. Due to the rising costs and prices of energy, raw materials and transportation, the cost of the whole industry will increase greatly compared with that in 2005, especially in the situation of oversupply of supply and lack of price support Therefore, the price trend of chemical products is not optimistic.